Every critical incident has a beginning, a middle, and an end. Process tracing concentrates on the beginning and middle to help explain the end. One thing I learned early in my research is that as you start making decisions, you set up a powerful cycle of self-reinforcing activity. This almost takes on a life of its own as it creates path dependence. The longer you are on the same path, the harder it becomes to stray from it. You lock yourself in because it becomes too expensive and time consuming to shift gears after a certain point.
To put it plainly, earlier decisions matter much more than later ones. These early decisions set you down a path as you build upon each former decision. This path creates your direction and commits you to taking a certain line of action that negates others, possibly preventing you from finding the best solution. The premise that your initial decisions are the most important can be illustrated further with two examples.
The first is at an operator level and involves setting up a perimeter to contain a suspect. Conventional wisdom dictates that when making a perimeter during an in-progress call, you make the perimeter larger rather than smaller. The reason behind this is to maximize your chances of keeping the suspect within your containment area. If you make this area too small, your suspect may already be outside your perimeter.
For this particular example let's say the supervisor has decided to make a smaller more localized perimeter. He bases this decision on some information he gets from an eyewitness. The decision to go smaller then creates the basis for subsequent decisions that limits the resources he puts in place. The supervisor has created his own path dependence as every decision he makes from that point on is based on his initial decision of making a smaller perimeter. Once he commits to that direction, all other options are lost unless he starts to redefine his situation and in essence starts over. But by then the suspect is long gone.
The second example involves local government and demonstrates why such organizations appear to make poor decisions. Let's take a typical road expansion project. In the initial stages of the project an area is deemed to need a better roadway. The project is drawn up, studies are done, monies are allocated, and after a few years, the project begins. It's taken multiple layers of decision-making, several committee actions, and a host of funding options to get to the actual project start date.